Steve Trotter

Here’s a small science experiment: Take a pencil; hold it out in front of your face; drop the pencil. What happens?

The pencil falls to the floor or ground.

How do we interpret what happened?

We might say “gravity” or go into some explanation from physics. We might say “flying leprechauns grabbed it and put it on the ground.”

What we can’t say is “It didn’t fall to the floor.” No; it fell.

How? Lots of explanations, some making sense, others not. But there’s no denying the pencil left your hand and fell to the floor.

“The pencil fell to the floor.” Let’s call that a fact. Something true; verifiable. Do it again: same result. Have someone else do it: same result. You performed an experiment, gathered data (not much, but it’s there) and rightfully deduced a fact. We would probably agree that someone who said “No. That didn’t happen,” would be dismissed as silly or crazy, seeing-impaired or inattentive.

We rely on facts all the time. The double yellow stripes separating lines of traffic are fact-like. Ignore them to your peril. A drunk driver doesn’t appreciate the factual nature of yellow paint, crosses into oncoming traffic and creates a large mess for more than herself (or himself).

We buy a candy bar and when the clerk says “That’s $1.75, please” we take his word as fact. We don’t hand over 87 cents and say “No. You’re wrong. It’s 87 cents,” when the price is clearly marked.

The price is a fact. You may not like it. You might think it’s too much. Oh well. That’s the price. That’s the fact. Disagree? Don’t buy the candy bar.

We all know this. I’m not speaking of a new concept, a recently discovered philosophy of knowing. Rational people know a fact when it comes up and bites ‘em.

So why are so many of us unable to accept facts, information which is verifiable, has evidence and data, and has widespread acceptance and understanding? Plenty of reasons, I’m sure, but one that keeps popping up is what’s called “confirmation bias.”

I’ve written about it before. It’s in every one of us. This shortcut is one of many cognitive biases our minds employ when we read or hear or see something. Call that something X.

Our mind, confronted with X, tries to fit it into a category our brain can understand. Confirmation bias says “If X fits in with what I already believe or think, I’ll accept it as fact. If it doesn’t, I’ll call it a lie.”

Our brains do this all the time, takes this shortcut and others, to help us process what the world brings our way. Unfortunately, we aren’t always aware of how biases process new information.

We’ve seen confirmation bias convince people that vaccines, pretty much all of them, are harmful or a government plot or ??? Once we think of vaccines as “harmful” all new information will tend to be ignored unless it also says “harmful.”

Remember those pesky facts? Our mental biases don’t care at all if something is true/factual or a bald-faced lie. We accept it if it confirms what we believe already. We kick it out if it doesn’t.

So a lot of lies, or if you prefer, false information, about vaccines are accepted by many because their mind is already set on believing vaccines are harmful. Those folks believe the lies because the lies confirm a belief already held. And their belief may not have been well examined or thought-out.

Some Republican politicians accuse their opponents of being Communists. Some Democrats cry “Fascist” about their Republican opponents. Much of that is just babbling. Nonsense.

Except for the confirmation bias. If you’re a Republican, you will be prone to believe those labels and accept them as fact, even though they are not true, not facts. Same with Democrats, all of whom have confirmation bias, too.

Unless. Call a politician a fascist? OK. Where’s the evidence? Start with a dictionary, so we’re all talking about the same thing. Then ask a few questions: Does she advocate for authoritarian leadership? Does she split the nation or state or town into “us” and “them?” Does she claim to be the only one who can solve problem Z, M or Q? Does she create enemies?

If the answer is “Yes,” I’d say you’re dealing a real, live fascist. Patriots — Republican or Democrat or none-of-the-above — would agree: She’s not getting my vote.

Stolen election? Not a fact. No evidence proving it; lots of evidence showing it didn’t happen. There are “experts” who claim it was stolen, but offer no evidence. There are conspiracy theorists that shout “Election fraud.” Again: no proof.

For some, no proof, no evidence, doesn’t matter. If a lie confirms what I already believe or want to believe, I accept the lie as a fact. That’s confirmation bias.

History is full of individuals exploiting our thought-patterns for their own ends. Hitler’s propaganda boss, Joseph Goebbels, knew that if you frequently repeat a lie, eventually people will accept it as fact. Most — but not all — Germans embraced Hitler’s lies and his nationalist rants, right into the second world war.

Mussolini, the Italian leader considered the first fascist (a questionable honor) made sure to make up enemies which only he could defeat. (Jews were one.) The Italian people — most, but not all — embraced his lies and followed him right into World War II.

Those cognitive biases are real. They aren’t always our friend. We as individuals and as a nation have to stop listening to lies and think for a minute or three, considering what the evidence for the lies might be — if any — and come to our own conclusions. We cannot accept at face value what someone is saying, too often saying only for their own benefit, too often only to gain power.

Cognitive biases are real. Facts help keep our thoughts balanced and centered, not crossing the yellow lines into disaster. Think about it.