As recent as five years ago, Deschutes County had a majority of Republican voters, but years of population growth has gradually changed that.

Democratic and nonaffiliated voters currently outnumber Republicans by thousands, and Bend is now reliably blue. But Republican influence was not lost in 2022 when gubernatorial candidate Christine Drazan, R-Canby, clinched Deschutes County, but ultimately lost the election.

Former Bend Mayor Jeff Eager estimates it was as early as 2008 when things really shifted — when Bend became blue and never looked back.

“It wasn’t so long ago that Bend was a Republican town, and it definitely is not anymore,” said Eager, now a political consultant and a lawyer.

Along with Bend’s exponential population growth in the past 20 years came an increase in Democrats, Eager said. Between 2000 and 2021, Bend’s population increased by nearly 50% according to U.S. Census Bureau data. More than 102,000 people live in Bend.

Even so, Eager calls Deschutes County a center-right county, which is especially apparent in the recent results of races for county commissioner seats and the governor’s office.

Deschutes County Commission incumbents Patti Adair and Tony DeBone, both Republicans, defeated their progressive Democratic opponents in 2022 by around 2,000 and 4,000 votes, respectively. But results from the Bend City Council and state House of Representative races indicate a strong blue presence in Bend.

“In general, 2022 ended up being not as good for Republicans as what many people thought, including myself,” Eager said. “That was true in Deschutes County…but also the same held statewide and nationally as well.”

When it came to the governor’s race, 85% Republican turnout in Deschutes County allowed Drazan to clinch the county. But a statewide Democrat influence paved the way for Tina Kotek to ultimately win the governor’s seat.

Prior to the 21st century, gubernatorial candidates rarely visited Bend to campaign, Eager said. In 2022, Drazan, Kotek and nonaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson each visited Bend and Central Oregon multiple times.

“I don’t think anyone would describe Bend as the ‘middle of nowhere’ politically anymore,” Eager said.

In the 2020 general election, people voted early, according to Deschutes County Clerk Steve Dennison.

That was not the case in 2022.

Voter behavior was different last year, Dennison said. He anticipated a much higher turnout because of multiple contested races, the three-way governor’s race and the current political climate, he said.

“I just thought that people might be more fired up one way or another over either candidates or some of the measures — state measures or local measures — that were on the ballot,” Dennison said.

Deschutes County had better voter turnout, at 70% than the statewide average, and Oregon had the highest voter turnout in the nation with around 62% of voters submitting their ballots.

Local political identity

In 2008, things definitely changed for Judy Stiegler. After an unsuccessful run in 2004, she was the first Democrat in two decades to be elected to represent state House District 54, which encompassed most of Bend.

Central Oregon and Eastern Oregon have always played a strong role in statewide politics even before her time, Stiegler said.

“Politics hasn’t been foreign to this area,” she said.

People like Tom McCall of Baker City, a former Oregon governor who is credited with creating the state’s modern land use system, and Bev Clarno of Redmond, who was secretary of state from 2019 to 2021, had major statewide influence, Stiegler said.

“There were forces to be reckoned with from this neck of the woods,” Stiegler said.

Central Oregon has always had a strong political identity, Stiegler said.

The bottom line is the voters.

Of particular note are the nonaffiliated voters, who make up the majority of registered voters in the state and in Deschutes County.

In the past two decades, the number of nonaffiliated voters increased by 317% in Deschutes County alone.

In the 2002 general election, there were roughly 16,000 registered nonaffiliated voters, and in the 2022 general election, there were more than 51,000 registered nonaffiliated voters. This is in large part due to Oregon’s Motor Voter Act, which went into effect in 2016. It automatically registers people to vote if they interact with the DMV.

“They oftentimes, quite frankly, can be the decision-making aspect in an election,” Stiegler said.

Stiegler, who now teaches political science courses part time at Oregon State University-Cascades, often tells her students two things: Every vote counts, and politics is not a dirty word.

The 2022 general election proved that in some ways, she said. Particularly, Stiegler said, Kotek did well in engaging voters outside of historically blue areas.

Neil Bryant, who ran as a moderate Republican for Senate District 27 in 1992, says a whole faction of voters has disappeared. To some extent, moderate Republicans don’t exist anymore, Bryant said.

Now, Oregon has more nonaffiliated voters that don’t fully identify with either party, he said.

“Bend, in particular, with its growth and where people have come from has more Democratic and more liberal voters. Even the nonaffiliateds are leaning that direction,” Bryant said.

Beyond population growth, local and statewide politics have changed in two other ways, Bryant said. The first is in-migration from more liberal places like Washington state and California.

“The other big change is where the money comes from,” Bryant said.

In the old days, he said, much of the money for state House and Senate campaigns originated locally. The sheer amount of money and the dollars that come from political action groups or donors out of state have had a significant impact, Bryant said.

Bryant was in office in 1996 when legislation for campaign finance reform was attempted once before. It was eventually ruled unconstitutional on the grounds of freedom of speech.

Lawmakers could revisit campaign finance reform this year for the first time since the ’90s.